Global Energy by 2030 facing Restructuring of all countries would be a problematic required by an Energy Transition that raises Security Issues worldwide, the conjunction of the fossil fuels volatility and the need for protection of the environment and reduction of greenhouse gas emissions had required a revision of all energy strategies.
This is roughly why we need as a matter of urgency to, on the one hand, review our current mode of energy consumption and on the other, exploit all forms of energy and the renewable ones that fortunately remain the only alternative.
The recent devastating hurricanes pose many problems and Algeria is not immune from any of them. Studies of the United Nations anticipated drought unparalleled in North Africa between 2020 and 2025.
The world to know an energy change over 2020 through 2040
The weight of all fossil (coal, gas and oil) remains at a crushing 78.3%, while nuclear power plays only a marginal role on a global scale at a 2.5%. The share of renewables is growing in electricity production (23.7% by end of 2015 against 22.8% by end of 2014), but it remains minor in transportation and heating and cooling facilities.
This high proportion of the fossil fuels is due to imbalances between States subsidies to fossil energy and those allocated to the renewables: $490 billion for the first in 2015, compared to $135 billion, or nearly four times less for the latter.
This does not prevent the sector now to total 8.1 million direct and indirect jobs worldwide (+5% in one year), including 2.8 million in the photovoltaic (PV) industry with outputs increasing from 59 Gigawatts in 2005, to 198 in 2010, 279 in 2011, 283 in 2012, 318 in 2013, 370 in 2014 and 433 in 2015 including solar Gigawatts 227 against 73 in 2005.
Investment in billions of Dollars is increased from 73 in 2005, to 239 in 2010, 279 in 2011, 257 in 2012, 234 in 2013, 273 in 2014 and 286 in 2015.
Subject to long-term investments, the fact that currently the development of the technology costs and investments in production equipment (wind turbines, solar modules, biomass boilers, etc.) which weigh on the cost of renewables, in the future, all renewables hardware would tend to bring cheaper energy and at stable prices.
Regarding costs reduction, the IEA recently noted that the price of PV systems has been divided by two and sometimes more in five years (2008-2012). Today, joining hydroelectricity production costs, as some renewable energy technologies have almost reached parity with conventional costs of electricity from other energy sources if considering grants allocated to the latter.
Renewables have essential assets for taking an important place in the energy mixes of all countries, starting with bringing the production centers closer to the consumption sites, reducing the dependence of these countries on fossil fuels. contributing to the security of supply and energy independence, allowing a long-term price control, constituting the most appropriate vectors of development of decentralized energy production and finally offering a considerable industrial development potential and new growth.
This would also help to limit the impacts of the production of energy on the environment: reduction in emissions of greenhouse gases, reduction of all effects on the air, water and soil, no production of waste, the production of renewable energy facilities very little affect the environment, the biodiversity and climate.
According to a report of Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF), it is a matter for fossil fuels to invest about $2,100 billion by 2040 to cover the global demand for energy, as opposed to $7,800 billion for all renewables. Thus, renewable energy would provide a quarter of the world’s electricity against 20% today.
But for a sustainable energy transition to ensure significant investment, adaptation, in electric networks to absorb and redistribute a greater proportion of current produced by all renewables energy for storage and manage the demand for flexible electricity production units on the importance of decentralizing energy production to bring them closer to points of consumption.
So, the world is moving towards a major energy shift based on a certain Mix with practically all enterprise already investing in alternative energy.
According to the same Bloomberg New Energy, it is expected reversal of energy consumption by 2025: a fall in the demand for fossil fuels and a significant increase in the demand for alternative energy.
This trend should be analysed considering the exponential growth of technologies (telecommunications, Internet, multimedia, etc.) more electro-dependant, for as much in the case of developed economies, as with the consumption to come of 1.3 billion people in the world still living without lighting, telecommunications, etc.
The conclusions of the IPCC – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report published in January 2015 and the report of Rachel Kyte, Vice President of the World Bank responsible for sustainable development), shows an increased and everywhere visible in the world events of climate extremes like drought, heat waves, torrential rain, floods, hurricanes, typhoons, etc., with heavy human losses (2 and a half million people over the last 30 years), the number of climate refugees (more than 20 million according to the Norwegian Refugee Council) and of costs of natural disasters on the increase ($200 billion per year over the last decade, almost 4 times more than in the 1980s.
Energy transition and national security
The national security being under question, Algeria, this month of September 2017, knows no financial crisis, but is rather confronting a crisis of governance. But the risk of no correction of the current political economic and particularly the industrial sector is to go straight by the horizon 2018 and 2019 to the IMF when the financial crisis and crisis of governance would live together.
The main challenge for Algeria between 2017 through 2030 would be its control of time. It is within this framework that the national program of development of renewables in Algeria must be implemented. This foresees a production as of now of 22,000 megawatts (MW) of electricity from renewable sources by 2030, for the domestic market, in addition to 10,000 MW for eventual exports.
The goal is to reduce consumption of fossil energy by more than 9% by 2030 and save 240 billion m3 of natural gas, or $63 billion over 20 years.
So about 400 MW made renewable through 100MW by the hybrid power plant in Hassi R’mel and 1.1 MW from the solar pilot of Ghardaia, in addition to a capacity of 343 MW from 22 solar power stations throughout 14 governorates (wilayas), including 270 MW which are already in service.
A national and international tender is planned to produce 4,000 MW power from renewable sources with a specification requiring domestic and foreign investors to produce and ensure the local assembly of industrial equipment production and distribution of renewable energy, including photovoltaic panels.
According to official statements from the sector during 2016 as reported by Algeria Press Service (APS), and before the Government’s new territorial cutting, SONATRACH, the State oil company is expected to launch tender notices where 34 foreign companies are in the race for the realization of a solar Park in Algeria of 10 MW at Bir Rebaa North, in the East of the Algeria.
However, it is necessary to carry out this program that could offer 300,000 direct jobs, by making investments of more of $100 billion by 2030. In addition to a new policy of SONATRACH that cannot ensure it by itself only, this important investment, it is necessary to set up a national industry as a public – private partnership of national – international concerns.
This must include all elements of the renewables value chain, including engineering, equipment and construction to increase the pace of implementation, studies on the connection of these to the grid network.
These are strategic choices to ensure energy security of the country and its energy transition, which will be done gradually because the fossiliferous deposits of the country begin undoubtedly to dry up whilst energy consumption is growing and will continue to do so.
Indeed, Algeria through widespread and poorly targeted subsidies is one of the models the more fuel-hungry in Africa and in the Mediterranean, with a growth rate that has reached or even exceeded the 14% per year for electricity.
The Electricity and Gas Regulation Commission (CREG) forecast internal needs between 42 (minimum) and 55 (maximum) billion m3 of natural gas in 2019 and SONELGAZ, the State power utility provider could produce on the other hand, 75 billion m3 in 2030.
According to the 2015 energy balance, published by the sector, the distribution of consumption of primary energy is as follows, i.e.: total production: 155 million Tonne of Oil Equivalent (TOE), including 63% exported and 37% consumed on the domestic market (including the electric generation) with households and others: 16.5%; consumption of transport, 13% and the consumption of the industry & construction: 7.5%.
In Algeria, there is a true paradox that is residential consumption whereby rich and poor pay at the same rate (Ditto for fuel and water) represents 60% against 30% in Europe and the consumption of the industrial sector 10% compared to 45% in Europe showing the dieback of the industrial fabric, or less than 5% of the domestic gross product thus coordinated action should be implemented as part of a strategic vision of development taking into account the new global changes.
At the same time, it will be to improve energy efficiency through a new policy of prices (sale price of gas on the domestic market about a tenth of the real price) causing a waste of resources which are frozen temporarily for some social reasons.
It is the largest reserve for Algeria that would involve it in reviewing its policies of housing, transport and bringing awareness of the population whilst reviewing pricing. There must be some transitional period and not penalise the poorest; Algerian Waters being an interesting case in point to study.
For this purpose, thought needs to be committed to the creation of a national compensation chamber so as to achieve a system of equalization, both inter regional, socio-professional, segmenting activities to encourage the structuring sectors and taking into account the income by social strata, involving a new wage policy and any grants must have the endorsement of Parliament in all transparency.
For Algeria, therefore, arose the problem of energy security, and of the urgency of a reasonable and controlled energy transition inserting itself within the overall framework of a transition from a petrol-economy to a non-oil economy in the framework of global comparative advantages. This requires a broad national debate on the future model of energy consumption and raises all the bureaucratic environmental constraints hindering the expansion of added value wealth creative enterprise and of its basis that is the economy of the knowledge.
Questions ? Please address the author Dr A. Mebtoul