Saudi Arabia and its main allies by cutting diplomatic ties with Qatar, leader in the liquefied natural gas (LNG) production and exports, accusing it of supporting extremism have this Monday succeeded in sending shock waves in the industry of energy raising prices that in the end serve well all OPEC, non OPEC producers and of course the Big Oils. Could we assume that the GCC rift deepens helping oil prices up was a collateral effect or was it intentional?
The Saudi Arabian and the Sunni Muslim States celebrated block during the visit of President Donald Trump in Riyadh has been shattered in less than two weeks after the Summit. This morning the cutting of all diplomatic ties between a coalitions led by Saudi Arabia of Bahrain, the UAE and Egypt has yet to produce any tangible effect on the rest of the world but it is assumed that it will definitely affect the oil production and eventually price.
Meanwhile, Oman has not pronounced itself with either although many find that there is close view on local politics between Qatar and Oman.
In the meantime, there are many and it is well known that a bad blood exist in the region at the start from the fact that all these nations including Saudi Arabia have all been artificially created on the basis of misunderstood criteria of ethnicities, religious and territorial demarcations, etc. in the last century and also mainly because of the actions of Arabia and the Iran alternately throughout the Middle East.
Trump has adopted at this Summit of Riyadh a line on terrorism that deflects blame from the Saudis to redirect it onto Iran. A more nuanced and realistic approach to the region could have been avoided if the local realism has been left in the care of local politicians unless Trump was intent on interfering in his his choice for the less harmful camp I.e. (the Saudis) against a potential stronger enemy that is more self-sufficient like Iran. It could well be that Trump sees farther than these local politicians. Sheikh Tamim bin Hamid Al Thani, the emir of the Qatar, according to reports had indeed crossed the red line such as defined by the Saudis (obviously per Trump’s) on relationships with Iran after the Riyadh Summit, like all the other representatives of the GCC.
As a matter of fact, Qatar and all the GCC have relatively intense neighbouring economic links with Iran for ages stemming from the simple fact that all influential people in these countries have links of blood with Iran. The most well known would be that of Sheikha Moza Bint Misnad, the mother of the Emir of the present Emir of Qatar is a perfect example, coming originally from a family of Iranian origin.